How to Know if Your Product Will Actually Sell, Before You Spend $50K on Ads

By Sean Clarke, Founder of Pacific IQ and EcomIQ

I was talking to a founder last week who'd just dropped $50K on ads. Six months of inventory sitting in a warehouse. Campaigns running. Nothing moving. He couldn't work out what he'd done wrong.

I'll tell you what. The ads weren't the problem. The ads were never going to fix the problem.

This is the toughest lesson in eCom, and it's the one founders avoid looking at the longest. Sometimes people just don't want what you're selling. No amount of creative testing, audience refinement, or budget fixes that. It is what it is.

If you're selling something that's basically the same thing three other brands are selling with a different label on it, you're in for a hectic time. You're competing on price. You need serious brand equity. You're burning cash just to stay visible.

Here's what I do instead. And what I'd do tomorrow if I had to start from scratch.

Start with demand, not the product

Most people work backwards. They build a product, then try to find people who want it. That's expensive. And slow.

I start with what people are already searching for. What problems are they trying to solve right now? What are they trying to buy that they can't find easily?

Reddit is gold for this. Go deep into the subreddits where your customers actually hang out. What are they complaining about? What are they asking for recommendations on? What product names come up over and over?

Then cross-reference with Google search data. Is there real volume behind those queries? Are people typing this into Google every single month?

Real example. We came across batana oil recently. It's a hair regrowth product. That single search term has insane amounts of organic traffic every month. There's already a built-in audience actively looking for it.

So what do you do? Source it. Brand it. Get it to market. You don't need to convince anyone they need it. They're already looking for it.

That's the primary sell.

Look for underserved search terms

This is where it gets interesting. You're not just hunting for high search volume. You're hunting for high search volume with weak offerings.

Go to Google. Type in the product category you're thinking about. Look at what actually shows up. Are the results generic? Amazon listings with terrible branding? Are there obvious gaps in what's being offered?

High search volume plus weak competition is your signal. There's demand, but it's underserved.

I'm not talking about building a better mousetrap. I'm talking about finding the one people are already asking for, that no one's serving properly yet.

The novel-to-generic scale

Here's the scale I use. Two ends, be honest about where you sit.

On one end, you've got a novel product. Something you've invented, or something genuinely different. Very little competition. Easy to sell. You need very little brand equity because the product itself does the work.

On the other end, you've got a generic product. Protein powder. Another skincare range. Something you can buy from five other places. Pricing becomes a war. You've got to invest heavily in brand, which is expensive. The whole thing becomes so much harder to launch profitably that frankly, sometimes you're better off not doing it at all.

Where does your product sit on that scale? Be honest.

Validate before you invest

Once you've found a product with built-in demand, don't go and order 10,000 units. Test it first.

Can you get samples in? Can you sell a small batch direct? Can you run a pre-order to gauge real interest?

Crawl, walk, run. The point is to prove demand with real dollars before you commit serious capital. You want people handing money over, not just saying they're interested. Those are two very different signals.

And understand your unit economics now, not later. What does it cost to acquire a customer for this product? What's your margin after landed costs? Can you actually make money at the price point the market will bear?

Run those numbers today. Not after you've dropped $35K on inventory and $50K on ads.

Make sure there's actually a market

This sounds obvious. It's still the biggest mistake I see.

Founders get so focused on building a DTC business that they forget the whole thing is built on one thing: a product people actually want.

Ideally it's novel. Or invented. Or you've got a real edge nobody else has.

If you don't have that, you're going to need serious brand investment and a tight operation to pull it off. And even then, it's a harder path.

So before you spend a dollar on ads, ask yourself three things. Is there proven demand for this? Can I find where people are already looking for it? Can I serve that demand better than what's out there right now?

If the answer is yes to all three, you've got a shot.

If it's no, save the $50K. Find a different product.

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